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The aim of this page is to find out how people think about conditonal probabilities. It can be used to demonstrate the so-called Goat Problem and it is fun to play in its own right.
Your task as a player is to work out whether there is a strategy that could increase your chances of winning. This might be making a certain choice, choosing to stay with your original choice or switching or a combination of both.
You will need JavaScript and Cookies enabled.
This is how it works:
First you will see a table like this with three choices. Behind two of the numbers there are goats; behind one is a prize. Click on a number to begin.
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Let's say you chose number 1. This rectangle will turn green and the others will flash for about 2 seconds. Then, one of the goats will always be revealed. You now have to choose whether to stay with your original choice, or switch to the other, remaining number.- Click on "Stay" or "Switch" to continue.
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Let's say you chose to stay and the prize was really behind number 1. then the table will look like this:
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